A less mischievous Iran under Hassad Rouhni?

With the election of the “moderate” Hassad Rouhni so ends the eventful reign of Mahmoud Ahmadijed. I for one will miss some of his  ranting statements and often outrageous quotes. His repeated threats and aggressive rhetoric especially against Israel whilst unacceptable were just that that. Rhetoric.

Iran Elections

Iran Elections (Photo credit: bi0xid)

In comes Hassad Rouhni. A more reformist and moderate alternative to Ahmadijed. The Economist in a recent podcast covering the election made an excellent point that “moderate” is a relative term. It’s unlikely Mr Rouhni will be extending an olive branch to the west.

What will probably calm down is the constant stream of aggressive rhetoric and uncompromising belligerence.  The sanctions imposed on Iran because of its nuclear programme have according to most analysts hurt the Iranian economy. To the point where Iran might seek to loosen the noose by offering something palatable to both sides.

Will Iran give up its nuclear programme under Hassad Rouhni? Unlikely. It’s now hugely symbolic and a matter of national pride. There is no way Rouhni could waltz in and dismantle the programme in response to international pressure without fatally undermining his credibility internally. I’d argue Iran has got what it wants from its nuclear ambitions by achieving “escalation dominance” if faced with the real threat of military action. It makes little strategic sense for Iran to now give up the program having come this far down the road.  (i’ll go into this in another post)

Given the firestorm brewing in Syria and little appetite from the West for any direct intervention. A calmer less provocative Iran is a good opportunity. Both sides will welcome the chance to back away from the rhetoric and create some breathing space through dialogue. Except of course Israel. But given they don’t have the ability by force or otherwise to eliminate Iran’s nuclear programme they will just have to accept this “least worst” option.


About stevenwilding
A creative media and publishing professional with five years experience covering journalism, marketing, communications, editing, book publishing, b2b events production and research. I'm passionate about politics and sustainable development. I have the enviable ability to consume unlimited quantities of food and not put on any weight. To get in touch tweet me @stevenjwilding or email at steven (dot) wilding at yahoo (dot) com

One Response to A less mischievous Iran under Hassad Rouhni?

  1. Pingback: Iran’s Strategic Imperatives (Or, How Iran Will Try To Avoid Being Gang-Raped By The International Community) | Geopolitics Made Super

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